Brexit would reduce UK to negotiating status of Jersey, says French minister

Britain will be reduced to the status of Jersey, unable to negotiate its own trade agreements with the major powers, if it opts to leave the EU, France’s economics minister has said.

Emmanuel Macron also claimed the UK would suffer years of uncertainty and be powerless to stand up to Chinese steel dumping which he said was going on all over Europe.

“If you quit the European club, the United Kingdom will be alone – you will be in the exact position of Jersey against the Chinese. It is not credible. You will be a tiny market,” he said.

“If you leave, what kind of economic relationship will you have with the EU? If you really want an effective and powerful relationship, why quit the club? You will then have to negotiate something new. Why? To have a relationship like Switzerland or Norway. Fine, but don’t forget you will still have to contribute to the budget to have access to the same single market.”

Speaking at an FT Future of Europe conference in London, Macron acknowledged that the US had been much quicker and tougher than the EU in combating Chinese steel dumping. But he said the UK alone would rapidly find itself isolated and without influence.

He said the Chinese were not respecting the rules of the game and would not respect the UK outside the EU. “Our constant weakness with the Chinese is when we don’t behave like a single market,” he said.

The EU took nine months to react to Chinese steel tariffs while the US took two months, Macron said.

He also said that after a British exit there would be little appetite in Europe to offer the British good new terms.

Speaking at the same conference, the former Polish foreign secretary Radek Sikorski said he now feared the UK would vote to leave, as the key issue would be trust in government. It would only take a scandal or a terrorist attack for that trust to be undermined, he said.

“The European idea may die because no one is defending it,” Sikorski said.

Although he said he was passionately against Brexit, Sikorski said it would allow the EU to press ahead with a common defence policy, something vetoed by the UK.

Macron is increasingly seen as a leading figure in French politics. Pressed on the subject at the FT conference, he refused to rule out running for the French presidency next year, saying the decision was not relevant at this stage.

Macron has announced he is launching a new political movement spanning left and right in France. He said he would look at his personal position once he knew whether he had been able to create a new movement separate from the current structures.

Asked whether he would rule out a run for the presidency, he said: “The first task is to create a new movement. This is not a one-man show.”

He said the priorities of his movement were to address a new balance between security and liberty, greater integration in Europe over the euro, defence and security and a new more responsive labour market.

He admitted that the unpopular French government had been forced to retreat on some of its structural labour market reforms, but said 60-70% had been implemented.

Macron has long been arguing primarily with the Germans for greater eurozone integration, including greater fiscal transfers between a core euro group. He accepted his ideas had not been picked up by the German government, but he hoped to form a broader integration agenda that would appeal to Germany covering immigration and security as well as the euro.