Welcome to the wonderful world of Brexit PLC: a nod here, a wink there, something under the counter and “I-don’t-mind-if-I-do”. No one knows, yet, what a government minister or official said to the Japanese company Nissan, to secure a massive new investment in Britain’s biggest car plant in Sunderland. We can only be sure it is neither the first nor the last.
As Theresa May’s government steers its unsteady course between the shoals of soft Brexit and the storms of hard, it assures all and sundry that everything will be fine on the night. But harsh business reality is immune to the cliches of political spin.
Nissan has to make a decision now on a planned 2018 investment for its new Qashqai and the X-Trail SUV vehicles. Vague assurances would not do. This was hard cash and 7,000 jobs, threatened by a double-figure tariff on trade with Europe under “hard Brexit”. The idea that industry minister Greg Clark could have got away with “just trust me” is ludicrous. Clark’s reported guarantee of continuing “competitiveness”, plus subsidies for training and other forms of job support, must have been expressed in bankable terms.
Similar deals are rumoured to be busting out all over Planet Brexit. The farmers have allegedly been given assurances that the migrant worker schemes on which their harvests depend will be protected. The big banks are told over ministerial lunches there is no question of obstacles to the free movement of their staffs round Europe. Care homes, NHS hospitals, the construction industry, tourism are all beating paths to Whitehall’s doors, relying as they do on low-paid continental and seasonal labour. Within the car industry, it goes without saying that Toyota, Ford and other big manufacturers are awaiting the same soothing words as Nissan has received. Otherwise all hell will break loose.
The British government complains when international companies are offered sweetheart deals from Ireland, Luxembourg or Monaco. When investment becomes a free-for-all, there is a rush to the bottom. Countries compete with each other, either to subsidise business or – the same thing – to excuse them taxes or compensate them for tariffs. The prospect under a “hard” Brexit, and a reversion to World Trade Organisation tariffs, would result in myriad such deals, day in, day out. And when clout is the issue, one thing is for sure: the smaller the business the less clout.
Ever since the industrial revolution, free trade has been one of the greatest boons that politics has brought to mankind. The idea that it should start to unravel within the European cradle of that revolution is appalling. Soft Brexit is a no-brainer. Britain has to trade openly with Europe and Europe with Britain.