These are the golden tickets, and you bet I trust Ainge to use them well. The Celtics have been in the lottery three times in his tenure. He turned the No. 5 pick in ’07 into Ray Allen. Three years ago, he chose Marcus Smart No. 6. He may never be an All-Star, but he is on his way to becoming the Dennis Johnson type who makes three huge defensive plays in the final two minutes of a one-point playoff win. Last year, he took Jaylen Brown No. 3. He’s 20 years old, off-the-charts athletic, smart, and already vastly improved two-thirds of the way through his rookie year. I would not be surprised in the least if he’s the Celtics version of Jimmy Butler in three years.
Many of the gripes I hear about Ainge are in regard to how he has drafted, and they’re always based in hindsight, without context. Yes, he took Kelly Olynyk over Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2013. That’s cherry-picking the negative. Giannis was an 18-year-old Greek mystery; you never know how much a raw player will improve, which in a sense is why Brown’s rookie progress is so encouraging now. There’s a reason DeAndre Jordan and Draymond Green fell deep into drafts – baggage, conditioning, questions about skill, etc. It’s a credit to them that they got it together, overcame their issues and flaws, and improved, not a failure of those who didn’t gamble that they would mature in the pros.
The next draft that goes in order of who will ultimately have the best career will be the first. Luck is crucial; the players are so young nowadays, you can do all the homework in the world and still be wrong. So is context. I had a reader point out that the Celtics have made 27 picks in the past 10 years without finding an All-Star.
This is true. It’s also a convenient cutoff point (it leaves out the likes of Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Allen, none of whom was picked higher than 15th) that also dismisses what Smart means to the cause, sells Brown short already, ignores the value of All-Defensive pick Avery Bradley, and abandons any context about how difficult it is to find talent outside of the lottery consistently. Of those 27 picks, 19 came after the 20th pick in the draft, and 13 came after the 30th pick. I wish he’d taken Giannis or Draymond too. But stop using perfection as the standard. Based on expected return, he’s drafted well. I’m sorry Luke Harangody didn’t work out.
The window for the Celtics isn’t closing just because Isaiah Thomas is going to be a free agent in a couple of years. It’s still opening, and it’s going to be propped open through many enjoyable springs for this franchise.
If you want to complain about Ainge’s drafting or whatnot, go ahead. I can’t forcibly make you stop listening to the uninformed and deliberately misdirectional. But I can tell you this in terms of another theoretical draft, a topic discussed on Zach Lowe’s podcast this week: If every franchise in the NBA could hold a draft of general managers, Danny Ainge would go in the top three. It’s not just that he’s collected assets, from the coach to the cornerstones to the draft picks. He’s one himself. Here’s to acquiring a clue and recognizing it.
