Election debate: reaction and analysis after Jeremy Corbyn and party leaders spar – as it happened

A song labelling Theresa May a “liar” is battling to replace pop superstar Justin Bieber at the top of the UK charts, the Press Association reports.

Captain Ska’s Liar Liar GE2017 has shot up the Official Singles Chart since its release last week, landing at number three on Wednesday.

The track criticises the prime minister, using samples of her speeches and interviews alongside clips of other senior Tories with the chorus “She’s a liar liar, you can’t trust her, no, no, no”.

Its rise through the chart means it is now in with a chance of replacing Bieber’s remix of Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Despacito at the summit in Friday’s chart announcement.

Theresa May has, unsurprisingly, turned down Jeremy Corbyn’s fresh invitation to join him in tonight’s debate. A Conservative party spokesman said:

There are no changes to the prime minister’s plans. She is out campaigning today, engaging with voters about the issues that matter, not swapping soundbites with six other politicians.

There is a clear choice in this election: either the Brexit negotiations are led by Theresa May 11 days after polling day, or they will be put at risk by Jeremy Corbyn and his coalition of chaos.

A Tory source said:

The public want to see a leader who can stare down the EU 27 at the negotiation table, not someone who will need their iPad to remember their dodgy facts in a debate.

Here is the statement the Labour party has released from Jeremy Corbyn announcing his decision to take part in tonight’s debate:

I will be taking part in tonight’s debate because I believe we must give people the chance to hear and engage with the leaders of the main parties before they vote.

I have never been afraid of a debate in my life. Labour’s campaign has been about taking our polices to people across the country and listening to the concerns of voters.

The Tories have been conducting a stage-managed arms-length campaign and have treated the public with contempt. Refusing to join me in Cambridge tonight would be another sign of Theresa May’s weakness, not strength.

Here is our story about Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to take part in tonight’s BBC election debate.

The BBC election debate is on at 7.30pm. Amber Rudd, the home secretary, is due to represent the Conservatives and we now know that Jeremy Corbyn will be there for Labour.

The other participants will be: Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader; Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader; Caroline Lucas, the Green co-leader; Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader; and Angus Robertson, the SNP deputy leader and its leader at Wesminster.

31 May 201707.46 EDT

Mark Sweney

The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader.

Ofcom has received 38 complaints about May v Corbyn Live: The Battle for Number 10, which was simulcast on Channel 4 and Sky on Monday night, with viewers alleging that Paxman was biased against Corbyn.

Ofcom will examine footage of the leaders’ debate to see if the complaints warrant launching an official investigation for a potential breach of the UK broadcasting code.

May v Corbyn Live drew an average audience of 3.3 million viewers, more than tuned in to watch a BBC1 Panorama special on the Manchester bombings and BBC2’s Springwatch.

As Claire reported this morning, the Times has published some surprise findings from a YouGov election model suggesting the Tories are on course to lose 20 seats at the elections. That is completely at odds with opinion polls and conventional seat projections which are all showing the Conservatives as on course for a healthy win, sometimes with majorities of more than 100.

Here is the YouGov chart from today’s Times (paywall).

View image in fullscreen

Douglas Rivers, YouGov’s chief scientist and a politics professor, has written a blog for YouGov explaining how their model works.

The YouGov model uses multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is how Rivers explains it.

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.

But Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory deputy chairman who now runs his own polling operation, has also set up a model using MRP to try to predict the election result. And his most recent update, published on Friday, had the Tories on course for a majority of 142.

My colleague Alan Travis has written an analysis of the YouGov model.

Being tactful, he says YouGov is being “brave”.

And here is some Twitter comment on the YouGov exercise.

From the academic Matthew Goodwin:

From the Times’s Philip Collins:

This is what Jeremy Corbyn said at his rally in Reading.

When he first mentioned tonight’s debate, he renewed his challenge to Theresa May to take part (repeating a point he made at his press conference this morning - see 11.14am) without explicitly saying he would be there himself.

It is very odd that you have an election campaign where we go out and talk to people all the time and the prime minister seems to have difficulty meeting anyone or having a debate. And so there is a debate in Cambridge tonight. I don’t know what she’s doing this evening, but it’s not far from London. I invite her to go to Cambridge and debate her policies, debate her record, debate their plans, debate their proposals and let the public make up their minds.

Then, after he had wrapped up his speech and received applause, Corbyn spoke to the crowd again to announce his news. He said:

I hope you will forgive me, I have to go now because I am going to go to Cambridge to get ready for the debate tonight because there is no hiding place. We’ll put our views out there and let the people decide. For the many, not the few.

View image in fullscreen

Jeremy Corbyn has just confirmed that he will take part in the TV debate tonight. He did so at an election rally in Reading, after challenging Theresa May to join him.