To become the 45th president of the United States, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump has to win 270 electoral college votes. The candidates have spent what feels like 100 years locked in mortal combat, but in the next few hours there will finally be a victor. (Well, probably. If there’s a 269-vote tie, or a mandatory recount, prepare for constitutional chaos.)
So remind me how the electoral college works again?
Each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes, ultimately based on its population. California has the most, with 55. Seven states – Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming – have just three electoral votes. Washington DC gets three too.
While there are 50 states in the US, most of these are “safely” Republican or Democrat. They vote the same way every time going back at least six elections. So the presidential election boils down to just a handful of “swing states” – the 10 or 11 states that have a recent history of selecting both Republicans and Democrats.
This is why voters in places such as Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire are subjected to a barrage of television advertising and campaign stops. It’s also why you have not seen Clinton and Trump holding rallies in Louisiana (safely Republican) or Washington (safely Democratic).
Trump faces a much more difficult path to victory. He needs to win almost all of these swing states to become the next president, whereas if Clinton wins two or three, she wins the race.
This is because Democrats start from a stronger position. There are 18 states plus DC that have voted for a Democrat for president in every election since 1992. That batch amounts to 242 electoral votes. There are only 13 states that have voted for a Republican in every election since 1992. Those states carry just 102 electoral votes.
If Clinton simply wins all the states that have voted for her predecessors in the recent past, then adds Florida (which has 29 electoral votes), she is the next president. If she loses Florida but wins, say, Virginia and North Carolina, she will be the next president.
Trump needs to hold on to all the historically Republican states, win states such as Georgia and Arizona – which are usually Republican but where he has struggled in the polls – and then win enough swing states to tip him over 270.
(For our international readers following along across Europe and beyond, a little light math for you ... in the UK, Ireland, Iceland and Portugal, add five hours to ET; anywhere else from Poland west, add six hours; in eastern Europe, add seven hours; Australia add 16 hours; and so on.)
6pm ET (5pm CT, 4pm MT, 3pm PT, 11pm GMT) – let’s go!
Buckle in because now the real fun begins: polls close in eastern Kentucky and most of Indiana. (Parts of each state are on central time, so the polls there close at 7pm ET.)
Mike Pence, Trump’s running mate, is the governor of Indiana. In the past 50 years the state has voted Democrat only once – for Barack Obama in 2008.
In some states we will know the winner almost immediately after the polls close. Most news outlets, including the Guardian, rely on the Associated Press to “call” races.
AP is able to announce the winners so quickly because it deploys thousands of people on election night to collect results from states, counties and locales as they are announced. It also uses exit polls and voting history.
Solidly Democratic or Republican states are likely to be called quickly. Swing states are likely to take longer.
Election drinking: Donald Trump doesn’t drink. But Donald Trump doesn’t have to worry about the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency. A nice way to toast – and mock, if you were minded to do so – the 70-year-old builder might be to mix up a “The Donald” cocktail as you settle in for the night. It’s got vodka, Goldschläger gold-leaf cinnamon schnapps and orange juice. But the most fun bit is the cotton candy on top. Doesn’t it look just like his hair?
Election fuel: It could be a long night, or a short one. But at this stage we likely do not yet know, so our advice is to fuel yourself for a marathon, not a sprint. And you can feed yourself and honour Ohio’s prominent role in US elections by preparing a Cincinnati chili. It’s a more Mediterranean take on your traditional chili, brought to Cincinnati by Macedonians in the 1920s. If you’re drinking more than one of “The Donald” cocktails, you will want to line your stomach!
Election soundtrack: Rolling Stones, You Can’t Always Get What You Want. A perfect kick-off to election night, given that both candidates are incredibly unpopular with the American public. Trump likes the Rolling Stones and played this song at his rallies. The Rolling Stones do not like Donald Trump, and asked him to stop. He didn’t.
7pm ET (6pm CT, 5pm MT, 4pm PT, 12am GMT)
Voting ends in three key swing states: Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire (where a minimal number of polling stations may stay open until 8pm ET).
Florida’s 29 electoral college votes have proved crucial in the recent past. Al Gore can tell you that. He narrowly lost the state – some still believe he actually won – and the election to George W Bush, despite winning the national popular vote.
Away from the top of the ticket, Florida senator and one-time Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio is up for re-election. He has been running a bit ahead of Democrat Patrick Murphy in the polls. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, who resigned as chair of the Democratic National Committee in July after leaked emails showed the party favoring Clinton’s campaign, is expected to comfortably win re-election to Congress.
Virginia was a reliably Republican state until Obama won there in 2008 and again in 2012. The state’s mix of less-educated, rural voters; wealthy suburbanites; federal government employees and military families; academics; jet-setters and so on make it difficult to read, but Clinton has been decisively ahead this year.
New Hampshire has been won by a Democrat in five of the past six presidential elections. But the Granite State gave Trump his first big primary win, and recent polling here has shown a tight race.
Other states closing at 7pm ET include South Carolina and Vermont – Bernie Sanders’ home state. Sanders won the Democratic primary in Vermont by an amazing 73 points. But now he’s with her.
Election drinking: Supercall.com has a cocktail called “Hillary’s Dirty Little Secret”. It’s a vodka martini with hot sauce in it, a reference to an interview in April where Clinton said she always carried a bottle of hot sauce. You could quip to your friends that it’s a perfect choice, as the race is “beginning to heat up!”
7.30pm ET (6.30pm CT, 5.30pm MT, 4.30pm PT, 12.30am GMT)
Polls close in West Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio. Expect the result from West Virginia very quickly – Trump should win easily.
North Carolina and Ohio are swing states and will take longer. Ohio has been seen as a reliable bellwether state, voting for the presidential winner in every election since 1964. That run might be coming to an end, however, either because of the state’s changing demographics or because of the strangeness of the current contest, in terms of the unfavorability of both candidates.
While its demographics are complicated – a mix of Rust Belt, big cities, Appalachia, farmland and more – the Ohio electorate has grown more white and less educated than the national mean. That trend appears to account in part for Trump’s strength in the Buckeye State this year.
Election soundtrack: The Pretenders, Message of Love. Because Chrissie Hynde is was born in Akron, Ohio. You could also make a point about spreading a message of love. Or of someone pretending to spread a message of love. Not that we’re questioning, in any way at all, how much politicians love the voters.
8pm ET (7pm CT, 6pm MT, 5pm PT, 1am GMT)
In 2012, the Associated Press called the Indiana result just before 8pm. Vigo County, which borders Illinois in west Indiana, is seen as the ultimate bellwether. It has voted for the winner of every presidential election in 30 of the past 32 elections – dating back to 1888. Keep an eye out for its result.
A big swing state closes its polls at 8pm: Pennsylvania.
Republicans have long dreamed of winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes, based on growing support among once flourishing manufacturing and mining sectors in the south-western and north-eastern corners of the state. But Clinton has been creaming Trump in polls in Philadelphia and its suburbs, which is where most of the people live, and she has been comfortably ahead in statewide polls for months.
Pennsylvania will also be under scrutiny on election day because of Trump’s controversial claims that there has been voter fraud in Philadelphia in the past and his calls for “volunteer election monitors”.
The results in non-swing states will start to come in thick and fast. Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey and Rhode Island all close at 8pm ET, and we can expect AP to call all these states pretty much immediately.
Maine’s polls also close at 8pm. It is one of only two states – the other is Nebraska, where voting finishes at 9pm – that splits its electoral votes according to congressional district.
The state as a whole is likely to vote Democrat, but Trump may steal an electoral vote in Maine’s second district, which is made up of more rural voters.
Election fuel: There’s a whole “Chefs for Hillary” page on Pinterest, a tribute to Clinton’s attempts to win the foodie vote. One of the recipes is provided by John Podesta, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign. It’s called Salsa di Noci and is basically nuts and pasta, but arranged into a large “H” shape.
8.30pm ET (7.30pm CT, 6.30pm MT, 5.30pm PT, 1.30am GMT)
The polls in Georgia close at 7pm or 8pm, depending on location. In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney was declared the winner just before 8.30pm. A Democratic candidate hasn’t won in Georgia since proper southern boy Bill Clinton in 1992, but strong support for Hillary Clinton in Georgia counties with a high African American population, and in Atlanta, have made her a threat to Trump.
If Clinton wins Georgia, Trump might as well concede. (Don’t hold your breath.)
Election tunes: Marvin Gaye, Inner City Blues (Make Me Wanna Holler). The African American vote is in, and Trump gets a big 1%.
9pm ET (8pm CT, 7pm MT, 6pm PT, 2am GMT)
Polls close in two traditional swing states: Wisconsin and Colorado, and in Arizona, which is usually firmly Republican but is swingy this year.
An increasingly influential Hispanic bloc and Mormons who can’t stand Trump – not to mention a superior Democratic ground game – mean that Clinton has a decent chance of becoming the first Democrat to win Arizona since her husband in 1996.
When the polls close in New York, at 9pm ET, they will have been open for 15 hours – the longest polling window of any state. Barring an almighty upset, Clinton will quickly be declared the winner.
Wyoming, Louisiana, North and South Dakota, Kansas and Texas all close at 9pm too. The networks should swiftly call these for Trump … unless loose talk of Clinton taking Texas, which last went Democratic in the Watergate era, comes true? If it’s that kind of night, water the horses and go to town.
Nebraska, which like Maine splits its electoral votes by congressional district, shuts its polls at 9pm ET. Barack Obama won Nebraska’s second district – Omaha – in 2008. Clinton could do the same this year, thanks to a well-financed get-out-the-vote effort spearheaded by Susan Buffett, daughter of Warren.
Election fuel: New York cheesecake. Hillary Clinton was born in Chicago but was a senator from New York for eight years. Donald Trump was born in Queens, New York, before inheriting his father’s successful real estate business. In January, Trump claimed his popularity was such that he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue [in New York City] and shoot somebody” without losing voters. Trump has been trailing Clinton by 20% in New York.
Election soundtrack: Fleetwood Mac, Silver Springs. “I know I could’ve loved you, but you would not let me,” laments Arizona’s Stevie Nicks. Might Trump be thinking the same thing when the Grand Canyon State’s results come in?
10pm ET (9pm CT, 8pm MT, 7pm PT, 3am GMT)
Given Clinton’s apparent strength in Pennsylvania, we may see the state called for her by 10pm (or, in a deeply troubling upset for her, Trump may win). The New Hampshire result should also come in around this time. They will offer one of the first concrete indications of how the night is going.
Nevada and Iowa are the final swing states to close their polls. In the past two elections, Iowa was called quickly for Obama. Montana and Utah also close at 10pm; both are traditionally safe Republican states, but Trump’s unpopularity means independent Evan McMullin, who’s from Utah, has a strong chance of becoming the first non-Republican or Democrat to win electoral college votes since 1968.
Utah has been called soon after the polls close in the recent past. If McMullin is declared the winner, it’s a good sign that the night is truly in uncharted territory, terra incognita, in the most exciting way. Former congressional staffer Evan McMullin: buckle up, America.
More election drinking: Yuengling brewery – the oldest brewery in the US – is based in Pennsylvania. Its owner came out in support of Trump in October, a move which has seen some drinkers boycotting the beer. You could however source some craft ale from the Victory Brewing Company, also based in Pennsylvania. We might be getting an idea of who will be victorious around this time.
Election soundtrack: Neon Trees, Your Surrender. It’s almost definitely not about conceding a presidential election, but if Trump fails to win Utah, Neon Trees’ home state, then he might want to think about surrendering to Clinton.
11pm ET (10pm CT, 9pm MT, 8pm PT, 4am GMT) ... and beyond
Polls in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington close at 11pm ET. These are all safe Democrat states that are unlikely to unexpectedly impact the outcome.
Back in 2012, the Associated Press called the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio – worth a combined 48 electoral votes – in the space of 30 minutes at around 11pm, then declared Obama’s re-election at 11.38pm.
In 2008, networks announced Obama had won just after 11pm.
We might know the outcome sooner this time. Or we might not know for a while.
If Clinton’s lead in opinion polls translates to the actual polls, then we may see states called for her earlier, on the back of strong early voting results. If enough swing states are called quickly, we could find out the result before 11pm ET. Or, if Trump proves the polls wrong, the race could as quickly run to him.
Separately, there are some individual states to look out for.
Ohio is one. Some polling experts believe that if Trump doesn’t win there, it is effectively game over. Fivethirtyeight.com gave him less than a 1% chance of winning the presidency if he fails to take the Buckeye State.
Likewise, if Trump loses North Carolina or Pennsylvania or Florida, it also becomes very difficult for him to win.
And beyond that, if Clinton can win Georgia – remember, these are usually solidly Republican – it would suggest she is in for a blowout victory that could see the election called for her very early.
In 2012, Virginia was only called for Obama after midnight and Florida was not called for four days. Clinton is polling well ahead of Trump in Virginia, and strong early voting results might see her announced the winner early.
Election soundtrack: Queen Latifah, U-N-I-T-Y. We may see the first female president, following a campaign marked by sexism and inappropriate behaviour towards women. Queen Latifah called out the disrespectful treatment of women in this 1994 hit.
Election fuel: Cuban sandwich. Florida’s signature dish is said to have originated in Cuba or in Key West, part of the Florida Keys archipelago. It’s got ham, swiss cheese, mustard and pickles in it, and might be a good way to soak up the booze.
Time for the the speeches?
In the early hours, we would expect a victory speech and a concession speech –though Trump has spoken of a threat that the election could be rigged and refused to say that if he loses he will accept the result.
If elected, Clinton would be the first woman to be elected US president. She has repeatedly spoken about breaking the “glass ceiling” in politics, and has chosen to hold her election night party at New York City’s Javits Center, which actually has a glass ceiling.
If Trump is elected, he will be the first person with his own vodka line to be elected president, and only the fifth president to have never held elected office.
The winner will have 73 days to set up a new government before they are sworn into office on 20 January 2017.
But if you’re concerned about post-election withdrawal symptoms, don’t worry: the midterm elections, sometimes seen as a referendum on the president, will take place in November 2018. All 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for re-election, along with a third of the Senate and more than half the governors.
And then, in summer 2019, a whole new cast of hopefuls will announce their presidential campaigns, and the whole thing starts over again. Great!
Where to follow
On theguardian.com, obviously. We’ve got reporters and videographers stationed around the country. We’re liveblogging all day and night.
NBC’s coverage of the 2012 election night was the the most watched of all channels, with an average of 12.1m viewers. Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie and Chuck Todd will be co-hosting on Tuesday, and veteran Tom Brokaw will be involved as an analyst. NBC will be superimposing a map of the United States onto the Rockefeller Center ice rink.
Fox News has Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier lined up to anchor its coverage of the night. They’ll have Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer on hand to dissect the results. Rove didn’t have such a good time of it in 2012, when he refused to accept that Ohio had voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. Let’s see how he gets on this time.
ABC will have George Stephanopoulos anchoring from New York City. Robin Roberts will be tracking Clinton, Amy Robach will be with Trump. Michael Strahan will be out in Times Square interviewing the men and women on the street and getting reaction as the votes come in.
NPR will be manned by Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Rachel Martin, and Ari Shapiro until 2am ET. As well as Clinton v Trump, they’ll be following congressional and senate races around the country. NPR has also commissioned an artist to live-paint a mural of the electoral college map, filling in states as they are called. You’ll be able to watch that on Facebook.
The BBC will have Andrew Neil and World News America host Katty Kay stationed in Times Square. North America editor Jon Sopel will be with Clinton and World News America Laura Trevelyan will be following Trump, and Jeremy Vine will be explaining the results as they come in.
Sky News will also be based in Times Square. Jeremy Thompson will anchor Sky’s America Decides special on election night, Adam Boulton will be in Washington DC, and Kay Burley will be out and about talking to voters and campaigners. The news channel says it is sending “more people than ever” to cover the election.
The rest of your election night playlist
Katy Perry, Roar. Played at almost every Clinton rally over the past year. Perry is a big Clinton supporter.
Lady Gaga, Hair. There aren’t very many songs devoted to hair. This is one that is. Gaga has endorsed Clinton.
OMD, If You Leave. A lament to us losing Barack Obama as president. “Seven years went under the bridge, like time was standing still.” He’s served eight years, but you get the idea.
Yoko Ono, Sisters O Sisters. A cry for gender equality and female empowerment. What better way to ring in the country’s first female president? If that happens.
Ice T feat Jello Biafra, Shut Up, Be Happy. For the dread moment when Trump looks like he might win.
“We interrupt this program with a special bulletin:
America is now under martial law.
All constitutional rights have been suspended.
Stay in your homes.
Do not attempt to contact loved ones, insurance agents or attorneys.
Shut up.
Do not attempt to think or depression may occur.
Stay in your homes.
Curfew is at 7pm sharp after work.”
Simon & Garfunkel, America. For that shining-eyed moment when Clinton is heading for victory, but how you wish it was Bernie.
REM, I Believe. For that moment when the state of Georgia turns Democratic Blue.
The Delfonics, Didn’t I (Blow Your Mind This Time). Pennsylvania turns away from Clinton? How about a classic Philly soul walk-out tearjerker.
Roy Ayers, We Live In Brooklyn Baby. Clinton campaign HQ needs a home-borough anthem. “Our time is now, we gonna make it baby...”
Cocktails recipes
The Donald: It comes with a thing of cotton candy on the top that looks like Trump’s hair. What more do you want? From Liquor.com:
2 oz vodka
.5 oz Goldschläger gold-leaf cinnamon schnapps
Orange juice
Orange wheel and cotton candy, for garnish
Pour the vodka and Goldschläger into an ice-filled Collins glass, and top with the orange juice. Garnish with an orange wheel and big puff of cotton candy.
Hillary’s Dirty Little Secret: Cocktail website Supercall.com came up with this. It uses hot sauce, referencing an interview in April where Clinton said she carried hot sauce around with her.
2.25 oz industry standard vodka
.5 oz dry vermouth
.5 oz pickle brine
3 dashes hot sauce
Put the ingredients in a shaker tin with ice. Shake it up for 12 seconds. Strain it into a coupe cocktail glass and garnish with a cornichon pickle.
Potus Punch: Thank you to Omni Hotels for this one.
2 oz Tito’s Handmade Vodka
1 oz fresh lemon juice
1 oz orange juice
1 oz grenadine
.5 oz simple syrup
4 fresh blackberries, plus 1 for garnish
It’s pretty easy to make: “muddle berries”, the recipe says, then add ice, add the remaining ingredients, stir it up and pour it over ice.
A few extra recipes
There’s a whole “Chefs for Hillary page” on Pinterest. One of the dishes is by John Podesta, the chairman of Clinton’s campaign.
Salsa di Noci: Use a blender to grind up 2.5 cups of walnuts to a paste. Coat a sauté pan with olive oil and toast the nuts. When they’re golden brown, add half a stick of butter and 1 cup of chopped canned tomatoes. Add 1tsp of salt and .5tsp of pepper. Stir it up then add 1.5 cups of chicken stock. Simmer, then add 3tbsp of chopped fresh basil. Toss 1lb pasta with the sauce, and add .5 cup of parmesan cheese. To finish, arrange the pasta into a “H”. For Hillary.
You can also find six of Trump’s favorite recipes here.
Who to follow on Twitter
Here’s a helpful list of Guardian US journalists.
Get in touch
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