As Germans try to come to terms with the impact Brexit will have on them, including necessitating a higher German contribution to the EU budget (with Britain no longer around to pay its dues) as well as an unclear trade relationship will remain uncertain for some time to come, one of the country’s leading economists, Prof Clemens Fuest, president of the leading ifo-Insitute, has tried to sum up the main points.
He told Deutschlandfunk a Brexit, even before it happens, will likely have a dampening effect on the German economy. “Economic growth is very solid in Germany and was heading towards a real upswing. Now there’ll certainly be a bit of a dampener on that, and the upswing will not continue as it has until now,” he said.
“That’s to do with the fact that with a view on the uncertainty many companies feel, they will wait before realising projects, before they decide to recruit new employees, before they carry out new investment projects. All the projects that have anything to do with Great Britain will be put on ice, or at least they will consider putting them on ice, or delaying them, and through that activity will drop putting a brake on (growth) .... This is unavoidable for us.”
According to Momentum, the pro-Labour group for Jeremy Corbyn supporters, 4,000 people are expected at a rally outside the House of Commons later to express support for Corbyn.
Nicola Sturgeon is to ask for cross-party support in the Scottish parliament to pursue talks with the UK government, European Union leaders and other member states on “protecting Scotland’s place” in the union, short of full independence.
Before making a statement at Holyrood on Tuesday on the implications for Scotland of last week’s Brexit vote, where the UK overall opted to leave the EU while Scotland voted 62% to 38% to stay in, the first minister said she wanted its mandate to reinforce her hand in those talks.
With the first wave of post-EU referendum opinion polls showing only a modest rise in support for independence and ambivalence about a fresh referendum, Sturgeon is keen to investigate options for some form of “associate” status for Scotland in the EU while it remains in the UK, to preserve Scotland’s access to the single market and wider EU benefits.
“I am now determined to explore every avenue to retain Scotland’s EU status, and Tuesday’s parliamentary debate is a vital part of that process,” she said, adding: “It is now crucial that our national parliament speaks with as strong and united a voice as possible on this issue.”
Sturgeon is likely to win that support, with possible amendments from other parties. The Scottish National party has 63 seats, two short of an overall majority, but is likely to win backing from the Scottish Green party’s six MSPs and perhaps others too.
Alan Johnson accuses Corbyn's office of 'working against the rest of the party' over EU referendum
ITV’s Robert Peston has seen an email that Alan Johnson, the chair of Labour In for Britain, has sent out about the result of the referendum. In it he accuses Jeremy Corbyn’s office of “working against the rest of the party” and suggests it had “conflicting objectives” to those of the rest of the party.
Here is Alan Johnson's email attacking Corbyn's office for undermining his campaign to keep UK in EU pic.twitter.com/4zqpLBj5Nc
Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 4-point lead over Labour
Tom Clark
A new Guardian/ICM online poll provides a snapshot of the shape of party politics after the referendum. The fieldwork was conducted over the weekend, so entirely after news of the leave vote was announced, and David Cameron announced his resignation.
It suggests a small Brexit boost for the Tories, who are on 36%, up two from the last ICM online survey reported in the Guardian a fortnight ago. Labour, meanwhile, also climbs two from 30% to 32%. Ukip drops four points, to 15%, while the pro-European Liberal Democrats slip back one to 7%. The SNP, which campaigned successfully for the strong remain vote in Scotland, climbs one to 5%. The Greens are also up one on 5%. Plaid Cymru is on 1%.
For the most part, the referendum was a bad night for the pollsters, with most of their final surveys suggesting remain was ahead. ICM did not publish a poll in the last few days, so it is hard to assess its performance in an environment where opinion seemed to be fluid. But its last two polls for the Guardian – one online, one over the phone – which we published 10 days before voting both suggested that leave was ahead, albeit by 53%-47%, slightly more than the final result of 52% to 48%.
UPDATE: We have amended the second paragraph. The figures we originally reported for the new poll were all correct, but we compared them with the last Guardian/ICM telephone poll from a fortnight ago, whereas the more appropriate comparison is with the parallel online poll which we reported at that time.
Nominations for Conservative leadership close on Thursday
According to the Sun’s Harry Cole, the Conservative backbench 1922 committee has decided that nominations for the party leadership will close on Thursday. And they want a new leader in place by 2 September.
New: Nominations close for new Tory leader THIS Thursday - 1922 committee. New leader by 2nd September at latest, subject to board approval.
A reader points out that, even if Jeremy Corbyn would not tell Chris Bryant how he voted in the referendum (see 11.19am), Corbyn did tell Twitter that he voted remain.
Angela Eagle says Corbyn should examine his conscience and resign
Angela Eagle, who resigned earlier as shadow business secretary, is on the World at One now explaining her decision. She sounds close to tears.
She tried to make it work, she says. During the deputy leadership contest she said she would serve the new leader. But Jeremy Corbyn is not suited to the job, she says. During the EU referendum he could not communicate Labour’s message properly.
Q: But party members do have confidence in him?
Eagle says you cannot lead the party if you do not have the support of colleagues and if you cannot communicate party policy.
Q: You talk about the prospect of an early election. But Labour MPs would have to vote for that.
Eagle says the government could repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. And Labour supporters would not understand Labour MPs voting against a motion of no confidence.
Q: Andy Burnham says Labour MPs should not take part in a coup.
Eagle says she is not taking part in a coup either. She has examined her conscience. Corbyn should examine his conscience too.
Q: Would you like to be leader?
Eagle says she enjoyed standing in for Corbyn at PMQs. But today is not the day for discussing this. Today is about the decision Corbyn must take.
Angela Eagle says Corbyn should examine his conscience and resign.
She does not rule out standing for the leadership herself.
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