Turnbull's so-called $4bn bribe to Nationals more wishes than fulfilment

The “$4bn bribe” some newspapers alleged the National party has “forced” out of the new prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, crumbles to a series of uncertain and unfunded aspirations when examined in detail.

The headline “win”, heralded as “great news” by the Nationals, was a pledge to pay an extra $1,000 to single-income families with a child under one who earn less than $100,000 a year.

But as Turnbull pointed out on Wednesday, this was part of a detailed package of changes being negotiated for several months by the social services minister, Scott Morrison, with both the Nationals and the Senate crossbench. The government has insisted the family tax benefit cuts are necessary to pay for the new childcare payments announced in this year’s budget but it has been unable to get them through the Senate. The current plan includes removing family tax benefit payments for sole parents or single income earners when the youngest child turns six.

Asked about the promise, Turnbull said: “[Morrison] has made a proposal, as I think is widely known, as part of trying to seek agreement with the crossbench senators and all that we have reassured the Nationals is that Scott’s efforts in that regard will continue.”

The Nationals acknowledge that the promise, which costs $130m a year, won’t happen if the Senate refuses to pass all the budget cuts to family tax benefit. They also acknowledge the $130m is offset by other, as yet unidentified, new cuts within Morrison’s negotiating package of changes.

The Nationals did win the transfer of responsibility for water policy (although not the water trigger in the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act) to the agriculture minister, Barnaby Joyce, from the environment minister, Greg Hunt. They are calculating that the $2.5bn that was budgeted to be spent on water policy over the next four years as part of their $4bn “win” because of the transfer of responsibilities.

According to Turnbull, water was transferred to the Liberals under John Howard when Turnbull was the responsible minister so he could “lead a very substantial water reform agenda” work that is now finished.

“The bulk of the reform process is done and it is, as Greg Hunt has said, it is perfectly reasonable, feasible and unremarkable for water to be returned to the agriculture department.”

Also in the deal was the promise of unspecified “ongoing” funding for mobile phone blackspots (the Nationals are assuming $60m a year in their $4bn calculations), a commitment to consider a regional jobs package that was under discussion as something to take to the next federal election and an “extension” of funding for regional road blackspots, also unquantified, and a commitment to consider shorter waiting periods for youth allowance for regional students, also with no funding quantification.

Changes to competition policy, championed by the small business minister, Bruce Billson, had been indefinitely deferred under the former prime minister. Turnbull has promised only that a decision will be taken by cabinet. He personally opposes the changes.

The agreement is a statement of intentions and bona fides on things important to the Nationals but – other than the transfer of responsibility for water – contains no definite or costed commitments.

To be fair to the Nationals leader, Warren Truss, and the agriculture minister Barnaby Joyce, they never claimed the deal contained financial promises.

“We don’t put dollar figures in an agreement of this nature. What we’re doing is talking about the policy direction we intend to take in the future,” Truss said when he announced it.

Other Nationals describe the $4bn as a “broad, guesstimate … upper limit”.

But Labor is running with the claim that billions have been offered. “Mr Turnbull will say and do anything,” said the Labor leader, Bill Shorten. “The National party is unhappy so Mr Turnbull has had to rush out and throw billions of dollars at the Nationals so he can be in charge.”

“Did Mr Turnbull construct a billion-dollar deal on the spur of the moment … or has this deal been in the works for a number of weeks?”