Macron and Le Pen go to second round in French election – as it happened

Gérard Collomb, the Socialist mayor of Lyon and a Macron supporter, has told France 2 television:

He has succeeded in doing what few people expected. When, a year ago, we launched his movement En Marche!, people said: ‘It’s impossible, someone who does not belong to a political party can’t reach the second round.” It reveals a serious malaise in society, with people who don’t recognise themselves in the traditional parties. We are, without doubt, beginning a new era.

Different broadcasters and newspapers are giving marginally different figures from their individual polling institutes, but the overall picture puts Macron marginally ahead of Le Pen (some polling institutes have them dead level).

Fillon and Mélenchon are trailing on around 19.5%. The Socialist candidate, Hamon, is way down on 6.5%.

The two second-round contestants seem clear. It will be the independent centrist versus the far-right leader – two radically opposing visions of France.

The first vote estimates for the first round of France’s presidential election show the independent centrist, Emmanuel Macron, has scored about 23.7% of the vote and Marine Le Pen about 22%, so they have qualified for the second run-off round.

Remember, this is not the official result and those figures could yet change.

Marine Le Pen is in her fiefdom of Hénin-Beaumont, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in a bar in the 10th arrondissement of Paris, François Fillon in his campaign HQ in the 15th arrondissement, and Socialist Benoît Hamon at La Mutualité conference centre.

The French interior ministry has issued a warning about fake vote estimates circulating on social media, saying no official statements have yet been made.

23 Apr 201713.43 EDT

Carmen Fishwick

Here are the views of some other Guardian readers in France, who voted for Mélenchon and Le Pen.

If you voted in the elections, we would like you to share your thoughts on the candidates with us and will use some of your comments in our coverage.

Marinou, 46, Normandy, special needs teacher, voted for Mélenchon: “He’s a clever, decent man. You can trust him. He speaks for normal people and shows true respect for us. I always voted for left parties. I work in a very deprived part of France. I can see how much children suffer from poverty and exclusion.”

Clément, 24, Besançon, student, voted for Mélenchon: “He is the only serious candidate that puts humanity before economy, democracy before presidency, life before productivity. He is the last serious candidate that seems to actually be from the left.”

Clément, 30, Lyon, writer: “Mélenchon brought some ‘joie de vivre’ out of us. We have to stand up to Germany and develop relationships with all countries in the EU, such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and, oddly enough, the UK. Brexit changed everything. We need to speak with everybody to solve our problems.”

Jacques, 21, Mulhouse, voted for Le Pen: “Le Front National has a vision for my country. The absolute freedom without restrictions and regulations ruined several aspects of French society and economy. France has signed over important sovereign rights. There is too much tolerance to terrorism, lack of independence and self dominion external authorities rule the country. I was usually socialist but in the recent years France has changed dramatically. France is not the country I was born in.”

How does France’s system of vote estimates work?

Unlike the exit polls operated in many countries, in which people are asked how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.

Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.

When the polling stations close – all are among those that close early, at 7pm – and as the votes are being counted, a polling official records, for a sizeable sample of the ballots, the number of votes for each candidate.

Those numbers are then run through a sophisticated computer program that adjusts them for past results and assorted variables, and produces a national vote estimate. This is not the official result, but nor is it an opinion poll.

It is usually very accurate, to within a percentage point or so – but this being an exceptionally close race, a percentage point may be decisive. So either we will have a reliable result at 7pm, or we won’t.

The first polling stations have now closed, mainly in rural areas, and counting has started. Polling stations in large cities and urban areas will remain open until 8pm CET.

In Nice, Oscar Lopez has found voters seemingly willing to forgive François Fillon his judicial problems. Laura Lili, 27, said the entire campaign was ridiculous – “All they did was attack each other, nobody spoke about their programmes” – but in the end, she opted for the conservative candidate.

Fillon’s promise to support French businesses won her over. “Nowadays everything is made overseas,” she said. “All we have are big franchises while French stores shut down. We’re going to hit a crisis.”

And while immigration was a serious concern, Fillon’s promise to stay in the EU was key: “It’s our strength,” she says. As far as the Penelopegate affair, she says “he screwed it up. But everyone’s done that. He’s the best of all of them, for the future of France.”

View image in fullscreen

Daphne Atlani, 42, was equally disappointed in the campaign. “It was a catastrophe,” she says. “Our real questions were never answered.” In the end, she too chose Fillon. “He has the experience,” she says. “And I don’t care that he paid his wife. They’ve all done that, and anyone in that position would do the same – it’s just human nature.”

Atlani was also concerned about France’s economy, and was worried about immigration. But she was wary of the extreme positions taken up by parties like the National Front. “Being represented by Le Pen or Mélenchon, that’s scary,” she says. “I’m very frightened about the results.”

There have been more twists and turns – and more firsts – in this election campaign than in any other in living memory.

This is, for example, the first time a sitting first-term president has decided not to run for re-election and the first time a candidate in a major French election has been under formal judicial investigation.

It’s also the first time that there has been a serious risk of neither of the two mainstream centre-right and centre-left parties that have governed France since the war making it through to the second round.

Besides François Hollande, other big beasts of French politics – former president Nicolas Sarkozy, former prime minister Alain Juppé – fell at the first hurdle. A victory for Emmanuel Macron would be the first for a candidate without a party.

And then of course, there was Penelopegate ... Here’s a look back at the twists and turns of this genuinely remarkable campaign.