In a new Washington Post column, Stu Rothenberg, the well respected former Roll Call columnist and author of the eponymous report on politics, states flatly that Clinton will win the presidential election and the only remaining question is by how much:
It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been “in play,” and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado. Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes. [...]
Now, with early voting already underway and only three weeks left until Election Day, the writing is on the wall. Clinton is headed for solid popular vote and electoral vote victories that are larger than Obama’s were over Romney.
Naked Clinton statue sets off skirmish in downtown Manhattan
Speaking of disliking Hillary Clinton – a naked statue of Clinton erected outside the Bowling Green subway station in downtown Manhattan Tuesday morning drew a crowd and caused a skirmish as a woman knocked down and attacked the statue while a man repeatedly tried to stand it back up.
“The statue was up for less than three hours before an enraged woman toppled it over and started yelling at the statue’s creator,” the Daily News reports:
“This is obscene!” shouted Nancy, an employee at the nearby National Museum of the American Indian who would only identify herself by her first name.
“To put something up like this in front of my work place...I shouldn’t have to see this,” she later told the Daily News, fighting back tears as she gestured toward the crude figure.
Why do people dislike Hillary Clinton? The story goes far back
Megan Carpentier
There is – and perhaps there always will be – a dedicated group of people who don’t know Hillary Clinton personally, but nonetheless hate her.
Whether they are truly a “vast rightwing conspiracy” (as Clinton called them in 1998) or just many in number and conservative in outlook, there’s no arguing that they exist or that they continue to try to influence public opinion on the Democratic nominee.
But even if people consider themselves savvy enough to reject the strangest conspiracy theories (sample claims include that she is a mass-murderer, a closeted lesbian faking her 40-year marriage, a member of the Illuminati and/or an agent of the devil himself), there seems little doubt that an undercurrent of hostility spanning decades has had an impact upon how she is viewed.
Clinton doing some midterms campaigning in October 1994. Photograph: Peter Cosgrove/AP
Clinton’s unfavorability rating may not be as low as Donald Trump’s, but in an election year which has frequently degenerated into name-calling, she has attracted invective from both the left and the right. Polls have frequently cited the public view that she is not trusted, while Trump has rallied his supporters with the “Crooked Hillary” epithet.
Her links to Wall Street, her missing emails and her supposed responsibility for the security failures that contributed to the attack on the Benghazi consulate are the ostensible reasons for some deeply personal attacks in 2016. But the roots of hostility towards her go much deeper.
Craig Shirley, a Ronald Reagan biographer and historian who spent decades as a conservative political consultant, said that, when Hillary Clinton arrived in Washington DC as first lady, “she came from Little Rock with a reputation already established” as “such a militant feminist, difficult to deal with”.
He noted that she faced hostility in Arkansas politics and media when Bill Clinton was first elected governor, because she kept her maiden name.“Here she comes, the feminist from Wellesley and Yale,” Shirley explained of the supposedly prevailing attitude of the time, “down to Little Rock and brings her attitudes with her”.
Christie on Trump campaign: 'it's not my campaign'
Asked about allegations of sexual assault against Donald Trump, New Jersey governor Chris Christie told NBC News (video), “I can only take him at his word, and I am.”
Asked whether he was proud of Trump’s campaign, Christie said it wasn’t his campaign:
It’s not my campaign... I’m proud of everything I’ve said. And that’s all I can control. The rest of it I can’t control.
As Christie watches his political future crumble with the Trump campaign, the governor faces increasing legal peril. A New Jersey judge last week ruled that a misconduct complaint against Christie in the Bridgegate affair could move forward.
In Trenton on 12 October. Photograph: Mel Evans/AP
Here’s some data via NBC News that’s catching a lot of interest this morning. The provocative suggestion is that, your blood pressure medication aside, the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clintonremains essentially unchanged since January 2016.
There, there. It was all but a dream.
The comparison is built on favorability ratings and polling of head-to-head matchups between Trump and Clinton over the last 10 months:
Is there a difference between a stable race and one moves a lot but then arrives back where it started? And what about that supposed shift by independents toward Hillary Clinton after the first debate – did that really happen?
Clinton's margin in the reweighted LAT/USC poll continues to follow the RCP 4-way average fairly well. pic.twitter.com/q2LV3jDEO0
Republican Representative Mike Coffman, who’s running for reelection in Colorado’s 6th district east of Denver, has produced a very un-Trump-like ad showcasing his support for the local Ethiopian community:
Activists stage 'this pussy votes' rally in Chicago
Activists have gathered outside Trump tower in downtown Chicago to protest the nominee with chants of “This pussy votes!” and “GOP, hands off me!” and signs reading “Pussy grabs back,” “Real men get consent” and “Fuck you Cheeto Voldemort.” Check out #GOPhandsoffme for more.
Anti Donald Trump protest in Chicago now about 200 strong, outside Trump Tower pic.twitter.com/vHWajtlWvE
Hillary Clinton has no events on her public schedule today. The third and final presidential debate is scheduled for tomorrow night at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas.
Donald Trump is to appear at two rallies in Colorado this afternoon. His running mate, Mike Pence, has two rallies scheduled in North Carolina.
Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Kaine and his wife, Ann Holton, have an event in Detroit, Michigan, today, while Bill Clinton is to campaign in Pennsylvania. Senator Bernie Sanders will be deployed in Flagstaff, Arizona.
Off the campaign trail, Barack and Michelle Obama are currently greeting the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, at the White House. The Obamas are to host a state dinner in Renzi’s honor this evening.
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House.
Florida senator Marco Rubio said last night that Donald Trump should “stop saying” that the upcoming election is “rigged” because “there is no evidence” of that happening.
It was the most direct admonishment yet of Trump by a top Republican for Trump’s repeated declarations that the election is about to be stolen. House speaker Paul Ryan has released a statement through a spokesperson voicing general confidence about the integrity of the election, while Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell has ignored the nominee’s attack on democracy.
“This election is not being rigged,” Rubio said in a debate last night with Representative Patrick Murphy, who is trying to take his senate seat. “And I’m going to explain to you why it’s not being rigged in Florida and why I hope he stops saying that – he should stop saying that.”
Rubio pointed out that Florida has a Republican governor and said “there is no evidence behind any of this, so this should not continue to be said.”
Trump says Ryan has an eye on 2020
Asked by ABC News whether Ryan wants him to win the election, Trump said, “maybe not, because maybe he wants to run in four years, or maybe he doesn’t know how to win.”
Ryan, the unsuccessful 2012 ticketmate of nominee Mitt Romney, could take on Hillary Clinton for the White House in four years if Trump loses (or Ryan could run against Trump in the primaries).
In the same interview with ABC News, Trump dismissed women who have accused him of sexual assault as fame-seekers. “These people come up, maybe for a little fame or maybe for some other reason, or maybe because they’re part of the Clinton campaign,” he said.
Trump: dead people are voting
“People that have died 10 years ago are still voting,” Trump told a crowd in Green Bay, Wisconsin, last night. “Illegal immigrants are voting.” He said that the election is “rigged” at “polling booths” and would be stolen. He did not mention any specific cases of voter fraud, name places where that has happened or explain why protections against voter fraud including transparency and decentralization weren’t working.
The vote-rigging in the Atlanta area appeared to be especially elaborate on Monday, with long lines of people outside polling stations for the first day of early in-person voting giving the impression of regular old participatory democracy in action:
Trump’s wife told Fox News’s Ainsley Earhardt that she did not recognize the man heard on a hot mic tape with TV host Billy Bush. “This is not the man that I know,” Trump said. “This is – we could see, as I always said, as my husband said, as well, for a successful businessman, entrepreneur, entertainer to achieving so much in his life, being in so many shows, so many tapes, it’s very hard to run for public office. And he did this anyway. He said, I want to help American people. I want to keep America safe. I want to bring back jobs, bring back economy, so our children, our futures will be the best way possible.”
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