10-5 Matthew path 10 pm.jpg
Hurricane Matthew was bearing down on the Bahamas on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Category 3 storm was expected to approach Florida's east coast starting late Thursday and could move all the way up the coast and near Georgia and the Carolinas over the weekend before turning to the east. (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane Matthew tracked into the central Bahamas Wednesday night with 115 mph winds as Florida raced to prepare for the first major hurricane to affect its Atlantic Coast in more than a decade.
Hurricane Matthew was anticipated to take a path toward Florida on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said, and hurricane warnings continued to crawl northward up its east coast and as far north as South Carolina.
And Matthew may be about to get stronger. Forecasters said the storm appeared to be getting better organized on Wednesday night and could intensify into a Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida on Thursday.
Matthew had already made two landfalls. The first was Tuesday morning in southwest Haiti. The second came over 12 hours later in eastern Cuba, which the hurricane center said was "hit hard" as well by the storm.
Forecasters couldn't say with certainty whether Matthew would come ashore in Florida, but it will be close.
As of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Matthew was located about 325 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, Fla., and was moving to the northwest at 10 mph.
Forecasters said Hurricane Matthew could strengthen into a Category 4 storm before it nears Florida's east coast on Thursday. (National Weather Service)
Matthew's maximum sustained winds were holding at 115 mph.
That keeps Matthew at Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.
That weakening was likely to be short-lived, the hurricane center said, and Matthew was expected to reintensify before it approaches Florida on Thursday.
Matthew had weakened some after running into the high terrain of Cuba earlier today, the hurricane center said.
But it was in a favorable environment for strengthening. The hurricane was moving over very warm water, so it was expected to gain back some intensity as it moves through the Bahamas and approaches Florida. After a few days, however, wind shear is forecast to increase, which could weaken Matthew.
Matthew's core was forecast to pass near Andros Island and Nassau overnight, then very near the east coast of Florida.
The hurricane center's official forecast track shows the storm taking a path nearly on top of Florida's east coast, raking it from south Florida late Thursday all the way to Jacksonville in north Florida by Friday night.
There's no guarantee Matthew's center of circulation will stay offshore, forecasters cautioned Wednesday.
"Only a slight deviation to the west of (the) forecast track could result in landfall in Florida," the hurricane center said.
Even though the forecast path for Florida has stayed fairly consistent for the past day, there's still a good amount of uncertainty in the forecast.
"When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location," the hurricane center said.
The forecast path changed rather dramatically for those farther north on the East Coast, however.
Computer models were throwing a curve into Matthew's forecast on Wednesday. Some show the hurricane actually making a loop and heading back in the direction of Florida. (South Florida Water Management District)
After moving north along the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts, Matthew is forecast to curve to the east and away from the coast and North Carolina.
For now, a track toward the Mid-Atlantic states that had been forecast earlier appears to be off the table, though that could change.
And some computer models have suggested Matthew could actually loop back to the south and come near south Florida again in several days.
Not all the models are going that far, however.
A strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic was anticipated to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or two.
The ridge will then shift eastward, putting Matthew on a northward path very near or over the Florida east coast.
Next it would track near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Then things get tricky. "By the end of the forecast period, models diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good distance from the coast," forecasters said. "The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water in the middle of these two model solutions."
The southeast U.S. coast is not off the hook, regardless. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia and the Carolinas later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore, the hurricane center said.
"It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north," forecasters said Wednesday. "At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend."
Computer models are in agreement about a track close to Florida, however, and hurricane and tropical storm watches had expanded northward along both coasts on Wednesday afternoon.
A hurricane warning stretched along Florida's east coast from north of Golden Beach, which was located between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, to Fernandina Beach, Fla. It also includes Lake Okeechobee.
A hurricane watch was expanded northward into South Carolina on Wednesday night. A watch is now in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to the Edisto Beach in South Carolina.
Tropical storm watches were also in effect for Florida's Gulf Coast. They stretched from north of Chokoloskee to the Suwannee River.
A tropical storm warning was in effect from Chokoloskee on Florida's Gulf Coast to Golden Beach, the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge eastward as well as Florida Bay.
Hurricane warnings covered the southeastern, central and northwestern Bahamas as well on Wednesday.
A hurricane warning was dropped for eastern Cuba, and tropical storm warnings were cancelled for Haiti as well, the hurricane said.
Wind, rain and surge
The Bahamas were seeing the worst of Matthew on Wednesday, the hurricane center said.
Hurricane conditions were expected to continue over the central Bahamas and spread into the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Winds will gradually diminish over the southeastern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions could make it to Florida starting late Thursday, the hurricane center said. Tropical storm conditions could begin early Thursday.
This is a prototype surge watch-warning graphic that depicts the areas most at risk from Matthew. (National Hurricane Center)
In addition to rain and wind, Matthew would continue to bring a dangerous storm surge to Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
Water levels could rise 10-15 feet above normal tide levels in the Bahamas and 4-6 feet along the northern coast of Cuba, the hurricane center said.
The water could reach the following heights above the ground if the peak surge coincides with high tide, the hurricane center said:
The hurricane center also said there was a threat of "life-threatening inundation" over the next 36 hours on the Florida east coast from Deerfield Beach to the Flagler-Volusia county line and in the next 48 hours from the Flagler-Volusia line to the Savannah River.
Tropical Storm Nicole
Matthew wasn't the only storm in the Atlantic on Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Nicole was located about 435 miles south of Bermuda and was near hurricane strength on Wednesday night: Its maximum sustained winds rose to 70 mph.
The hurricane center said Nicole could get a little stronger, and there was a small window for it to become a hurricane before weakening.
Nicole wasn't expected to threaten land and could meander in the Atlantic through the weekend.