Teacher shortage and pupil surge creating 'perfect storm' in UK schools

Schools face a “perfect storm” in the next five years, with a growing crisis in teacher recruitment and a surge in pupil numbers threatening to undermine children’s education, head teachers have warned.

Many schools across the country have reported difficulties finding teachers, particularly in core subjects such as maths, English and science, a fringe meeting at the Conservative party conference in Manchester was told.

But the situation looks set to deteriorate sharply as a population bulge, already putting huge pressure on primary schools, particularly in major cities, feeds through to secondary schools where head teachers are experiencing difficulties filling teaching vacancies.

The warning was made by Allan Foulds, president of the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) and head teacher of Cheltenham Bournside school in Gloucestershire. “There is a real danger that a system which is already under severe strain will reach breaking point, and that schools will be forced to drop more courses and increase class sizes further,” he said. “This situation puts in jeopardy the huge progress that has been made by schools and undermines the drive to further raise standards.”

Forecasts show that pre-16 pupil numbers are likely to increase by about 615,000 over the next five years from 7.24 million in 2015 to 7.85 million in 2020, resulting in a demand for more teachers.

One head teacher, who asked to remain anonymous, said the shortage of maths teachers was so acute that schools were being forced to “gazump” rival schools to try to recruit the best candidates.

“I was ready to make a 300-mile round trip to see one candidate in their existing school, before they had a chance to be interviewed by another school,” he said. In the end, he did not have to make the trip because the candidate had already made their choice, but added: “I’ve no doubt gazumping is going on.”

When he recently advertised – twice – for a head of maths, there were only four applicants in total. Science teachers have agreed to cover some maths classes, and a gap in the English department has been plugged by bringing a member of staff out of retirement. “It’s a complete Box and Cox,” the head teacher said. “I’ve been a head for 10 years and the recruitment side is taking up a lot more of my time than it ever used to.”

The ASCL warning comes a day after a YouGov poll revealed that more than half of teachers are considering leaving the profession in the next two years as a result of plummeting morale. Of the 53% thinking of quitting, the key reasons given were “volume of workload” (61%) and “seeking a better work/life balance” (57%).

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Responding to the ASCL’s remarks, the education secretary, Nicky Morgan, who is due to address the Tory party conference on Tuesday, has acknowledged that teacher recruitment will be a challenge as the economy strengthens and graduate opportunities increase.

She said: “Teaching remains hugely popular, with the highest numbers of people joining since 2008 and with 3% more people due to start postgraduate teacher training than this time last year.

“However, we recognise that there is a challenge ahead as the economy continues to strengthen. To help us continue to attract the best and brightest graduates into the profession we have announced a new range of generous bursaries and scholarships for 2016-17 – worth up to £30,000 tax-free – in the core academic subjects that help children reach their potential.

“Through programmes like School Direct and Teach First we are helping schools recruit candidates they may have previously struggled to bring in, and our Talented Leaders initiative is also placing outstanding headteachers into struggling schools.”

Foulds said schools in challenging circumstances were worst affected by teacher shortages, which would have an impact on disadvantaged children, thereby undermining attempts to close the attainment gap.

“Teachers are the lifeblood of the system and without an adequate supply of high-quality professionals many of the government’s education reforms, such as the focus on the English baccalaureate subjects, will founder,” he said. “Schools are increasingly having to paper over the cracks. Many have no choice other than to use non-specialist teachers and temporary supply staff to teach core subjects like English, maths and science. These staff often do a fantastic job in difficult circumstances but the situation is far from ideal and is simply not sustainable.

Foulds welcomed government pledges to pay increased bursaries for top graduates training to teach physics, another subject where there are serious recruitment probems, but added: “Time is running out and the government must get to grips more broadly with this critical issue.”

The shadow education secretary, Lucy Powell, blamed the government for the “chronic shortage of teachers in our schools”, which she said was damaging standards for pupils.

“The Tories’ botched handling of recruitment and doing down of the profession has left schools struggling to cope against falling applications and the highest number of teachers quitting in a decade,” she said. “Their failure on education is bringing the system to breaking point, letting down the next generation and threatening our country’s future success.”