Super Tuesday: Trump and Clinton win big but rivals score victories – as it happened

Super Tuesday is over – notwithstanding a lot of delegate math left to be done and that tardy Alaska caucuses result (with 22.2% reporting, Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz 35.9%-33.1%). Here’s what we learned:

• Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee ... yet.
• Nevertheless, it was a big night for the New York billionaire, and for Hillary Clinton. They won seven states each, picked up armloads of delegates and advanced their respective claims on their parties’ presidential nominations.
• It’s not over yet – on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders’s four state victories keep the race alive, and on the Republican side Ted Cruz’s big win in Texas and second win in Oklahoma do the same.
• Florida senator Marco Rubio had a tough night. He won only one state - Minnesota – and fell short of the 20% minimum needed to earn delegates in Texas, Alabama and Vermont. He appeared to fall 100+ delegates behind Cruz.
• Rubio vowed to fight on, telling supporters the race was in its early stages and he would start to clean up later this month.
  
• Our comprehensive results page is here. (This isn’t something we learned tonight but this seems like a good place to mention it.)
  
• Clinton profited from giant 60- to 80-point margins among African American voters across the South.
• What about Ben Carson and John Kasich? Kasich came in second in Vermont. Carson was in contention nowhere. Kasich called on Rubio to drop out and Carson said: “I will remain.”
• The races could resolve dramatically in the next two weeks. Nine states host contests between now and 15 March, when the contests suddenly become winner-take-all and crucial states vote including Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
• As for color, there was a strange Trump victory-rally-slash-press-conference that ran interminably. What made it strange was New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who endorsed Trump last Friday, introduced Trump and then stood behind him the whole time. But the look on Christie’s face was one of doom. The internet noticed.

Just after the polls closed in Alaska, Sam Moore, 31, arrived at the Lofts hotel in Anchorage where a small group of Republicans were gathering to watch results come in. He was holding a Marco Rubio sign.

“It’s a marathon not a sprint, I think he still has a chance,” he said. “We can’t let Trump win the nomination.”

In the bar, Cary Taylor, 47, and friends watched national news reporting big wins for Trump. Alaska’s poll results were still hours away, but many expected a similar result.

Taylor supports Trump, he said, because he feels he can “bring back common sense to American government.” He feels good about Trump’s progress.

“What I’m seeing in America is someone who, love ‘em or hate ‘em, at least has actually performed in the market, has actually proven himself.”

The results so far (10% in) show Trump ahead in Alaska with 34.2% of the vote.

2 Mar 201601.07 EST

Mona Chalabi

The big takeaway from tonight? A presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump looks even more likely, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi:

That’s because both candidates finished Super Tuesday by making big gains in their delegate count numbers. Final delegate numbers are still being calculated but at the time of writing, Clinton added 436 delegates to her running total (putting her at 527 delegates compared to Bernie Sanders’ 325) and Trump gained an extra 186 delegates (giving him a total of 268 so far compared to Cruz’s 142).

Even though delegates are what really matters (and those are often dependent on vote share) the simple fact of coming first can matter too. Just ask Bernie Sanders - the Senator won in four states even though some expectations had him winning only Vermont, his home state. Although he still has an uphill struggle to get the 2,382 delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee, Sanders might now be perceived as more of a viable candidate among voters.

The race goes on.

Rubio appears to have fallen short in key 20% cutoff states...

While Cruz appears to have sewn up Texas. That would account for part of the 100-some delegate split that appears to have emerged between them.

Sanders beat Clinton in Oklahoma – where the former secretary state defeated Barack Obama in the 2008 primary.

She’s getting worse at Oklahoma, it appears:

How’s the overall delegate haul this evening shaking out? Cook Political report seesTrump with at least 262 total, of the 1,237 needed to win the nomination, and the AP sees Trump with at least 257.

Cook sees a big gap opening between Cruz and Rubio...

While the Associated Press counts a significant haul for Trump this Super Tuesday and a lesser haul for Cruz:

With results still coming in, Trump had won at least 139 Super Tuesday delegates, while Cruz picked up at least 52. Overall, Trump led with 257 delegates, Cruz 106, Rubio 67. It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president.

On the Democratic side, Clinton was assured of winning at least 441 of the 865 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday. Sanders was sure to get at least 262. Including superdelegates, Clinton had at least 989 delegates. Sanders had at least 349. It takes 2,383 Democratic delegates to win.

Clinton has won at least 10 states since the nomination contests began, with Sanders victorious in at least five.

Among Democrats, Trump has won at least nine states, with three for Cruz and one for Rubio.

Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts has been following the Bernie Sanders campaign since May and has clocked some 60 campaign events:

Carson, whom voters in most states have just resoundingly counted out, has released a statement to supporters saying: “I am not moved or discouraged when the political class count me out”:

As long we continue to receive their support, and the Lord keeps opening doors, I will remain in this presidential race. The stakes are too high to willingly hand our country over once again to the pundits and the political class. I truly believe in America and the potential to return to the values on which this country was founded.

View image in fullscreen

Ouch. Of Alabama’s 50 delegates, 26 are statewide and 21 are awarded per congressional district (the remaining three are free-floating).

Florida senator Marco Rubio may still clear the 20% threshold within a congressional district to access some delegates in Alabama. But he’s fallen short of 20% statewide:

A rundown of Rubio’s war on 20% elsewhere:

Make that seven states for Trump, with only Alaska outstanding. If Trump wins Alaska, the win tally for the evening would be Trump 8, Cruz 2 and Rubio 1.

Alaska hosted Republican caucuses tonight and has 28 delegates to offer with a 13% threshold to qualify for delegates.

We’ll see if we get a quick call right at midnight ET.

Newt Gingrich agrees (and no surprise here?) with the blog: Trump’s news conference struck a notable – and favorable, from where we sit – contrast with the run-of-the-mill rah-rah rallies of the other candidates tonight:

(h/t: @bencjacobs)

2 Mar 201623.48 EST

Megan Carpentier

As CNN called the Minnesota caucuses for Bernie Sanders at 10.30pm local time, the right-side room of The Local in downtown Minneapolis erupted in cheers and chants of “Bernie! Bernie!”, as staff, supporters and volunteers raised their arms and clinked their glasses.

Phil Khalar-Gibson, who spent the weekend criss-crossing Minneapolis educating people about the caucus process and handing out Sanders literature arrived exuberantly just moments before the call. “My precinct was crazy!” he shouted, pulling out sheets of numbers showing overwhelming caucus tallies in Sanders’ favor.

Ryan Flanders, who campaigned and caucused for Obama in 2008 and voted for Green party candidate Jill Stein in 2012, said his personal circumstances hadn’t allowed him to volunteer for Sanders despite his excitement, but that he showed up early at his caucus to help sign potential caucus goers in. “I want them to be able to have their voices heard”, he said.

And, if the results are any indication, many new caucus-goers’ voices were definitely heard.

First-time caucus goer and life-long Minnesota resident Simon Hardy said: “This is probably the first candidate I’ve really felt inspired by.”

His friend, Andrew Henley - who also caucused for the first time tonight - said he turned out for Sanders because “I saw a glimmer of what could be possible for my great-grandchildren, and felt a responsibility to participate beyond my personal motivation.”

Hardy plans to vote Democratic no matter who wins the party’s primaries: “The thought of a Führer Trump terrifies me,” he said.

2 Mar 201623.44 EST

Jeb Lund

Weird times at the official Arkansas Republican Party party at the Embassy Suites on — and this is really gilding the lily — Financial Services Drive in west Little Rock.

This has been a great night for the Arkansas Republican Party. Voter participation in the state has broken roughly 60-40 in their favor, marking easily the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans have voted in greater numbers than Democrats in these contests.

But the official state GOP party is the only party in town not run by Democrats. The Clinton people are whooping it up in the same way that a Division 5A high school whoops it up after beating a Division 1A team by 72 points at the homecoming game. The Sanders people are at a local brewery near the riverwalk. They deserve it. But as for the Republicans, no one — not Cruz, not Rubio, not Trump — had an actual official office here, the party planning, as does so many things with conservatism, devolves to the state.

The state GOP party isn’t in danger of going off the rails. It is glued to the rails. It is welded and nail-gunned to the rails.

Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson speaks, then finishes to a scatter of applause. For people having a historic night, there are no whoops, whistles or even a vaguely Stone Cold Steve Austin-esque HELL YEAH. If you weren’t paying attention to his speech, you might not have noticed it ended. There is a faintly funereal sense to his appearance. The governor has lost something close to him, and it is political capital.

Hutchinson broke from state party tradition and endorsed Rubio before the primary, and several state party leaders followed him. Perhaps that decision owed more to the primary being held unusually early, but all anyone will read into the act is another breached barricade in the stop Trump movement.

The screens with Fox News at the rear of the Embassy Suites restaurant — and the variegated Fox, CNN, MSNBC feeds on the screens on the right side — all show the same thing. Donald Trump is walking away with the party, and as soon as the results come in from here, it’s going to turn out he walked away with Arkansas too.

Five states tonight deny delegates to any candidate who does not get at least 20% of the vote. Marco Rubio has hung right at the 20% mark in all five. Ending up just below the mark could make Rubio’s night significantly worse, in terms of picking up delegates (which is all that matters).

He’s looking good in Georgia. In Alabama and in Texas, the big delegate prize – not so much. Here’s how Rubio stands currently in the five states in question:

Alabama: 18.3% with 79.3% reporting.

Georgia: 23.8% with 87.9% reporting.

Tennessee: 20.8% with 95.1% reporting.

Texas: 17.3% with 52.2% reporting.

Vermont: 19.4% with 82.9% reporting.

2 Mar 201623.42 EST

Sam Levin

Bernie Sanders scored a critical Super Tuesday victory against Hillary Clinton in Colorado, sparking celebrations across the liberal city of Denver as the Vermont senator struggled with significant losses in other states across the country.

Emily Rosa, a 23-year-old Denver voter - carrying a sign that read “Bernie: Championing LGBT rights before it was cool” - said it was exciting to see a female presidential candidate winning throughout the US, but noted that Sanders’ momentum felt more historic to her.

“It’s really awesome that a woman is doing so well, but at the same time, what Sanders is doing is really this grassroots movement,” said Rosa, an art director at a design firm. “He’s getting so many people out in the younger generation and that’s so cool.”

She added: “He’s showing that a politician can get this far without all that campaign money, and that message is really important and a historic one ... I feel like I’m contributing to something bigger than myself.”

Rosa was one of many pro-Sanders voters who crowded into a middle school cafeteria in Denver at a caucus that appeared to attract fewer Clinton supporters and dragged on for hours as organizers slowly signed in a bottleneck of registered Democrats.

Some elderly voters sat on the floor of the school cafeteria and gym, complaining that there were not enough chairs for those who needed them.

Colorado was a key battleground for Sanders after he failed to gain traction in South Carolina last month and lost other important southern states on Super Tuesday. Colorado has a large bloc of independent voters who are unaffiliated with either political party, and the Sanders campaign has worked on the ground to register new Democrats.