The economic complexities of Brexit pale in comparison to the psychological ones, it sometimes seems – and in the response to remarks made by the German vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, yesterday on the consequences of Britain’s decision, we have another case in point. Gabriel, a compelling political figure recently notable for giving the finger to a bunch of neo-Nazis, was reflecting on Europe’s likely response to British manoeuvres, and said something that you might imagine would be self-evident to most people: “If we organise Brexit in the wrong way, then we’ll be in deep trouble, so now we need to make sure that we don’t allow Britain to keep the nice things, so to speak, related to Europe while taking no responsibility.”
Which is just obvious, isn’t it? Depressing, but obvious. And yet in all the Faragiste scoffing at the idea that the EU will take a hard line in trade negotiations – you’ll recall a lot of talk of apoplectic German car manufacturers – the rational case for a punitive approach barely makes an appearance. It bears repeating: in the next couple of years, it seems likely there will be courses of action available to EU states that will be against their own immediate and narrow self-interest as well as Britain’s. It will appear superficially vindictive and foolish to take them.
But the easier our path out of Europe is to navigate, the smaller the disincentives to others who may think of following us. And so those punitive actions may sometimes be wise to take all the same. It may be worth cutting off your nose to spite your face if the infection is in danger of spreading to your eyes and ears. None of this is pleasant, but none of it is surprising, either: any right we had to expect special treatment expired, obviously, when we voted to give it up.
Despite all this, whenever an influential European implies that the EU will not be going out of its way to make our exit a painless one, the howl goes up, on the front of the Express and elsewhere – the sound of a furious neighbour with an acute and unjustified sense of victimhood. Fine, we drove our car into their conservatory, but why won’t they go halves on the repairs? We’ve known them for years! Mates’ rates! It’s hard to understand how the same sort of people who have been hurling abuse at European leaders for months and years (“Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives!”) are now offended that those same European leaders don’t have their best interests at heart.
The only thing I can think of is this: when you’ve been part of a club for a long time, it is rather hurtful to realise that all of the benefits that you thought were just because everyone thought you were so great were actually because you were giving them money. We might have decided we don’t want to be part of the EU any more – but we have barely begun to come to terms with what that actually means. For now, the Brexiteers’ touching education in the impermanence of relationships continues. No one tell them the mother dies in Bambi, for God’s sake. They’re not ready.