Tony Abbott 'determined to do better' after spill motion defeated – politics live

The government’s fortunes are always in my prayers.

(That was Christopher Pyne, on his way to church.) Pyne very carefully avoided any comment on who is best to be leader, and what should happen next. Peak arch.

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In the wonderful imagination of Mike Bowers, Pyne is a unicorn – a magical creature who flies above the fray. Here he is, chatting to government whip, Philip Ruddock.

Andrew Laming is now everywhere, simultaneously, confirming his support for the spill motion. He thinks internal processes and attitudes won’t change.

I think we are in a very difficult position.

Immigration minister Peter Dutton says Tony Abbott just needs clear air.

The prime minister is just arriving at church. He’s ignored the press pack and walked straight into the service.

Both Sky News and news.com have confirmed that today’s vote will be of 101 MPs, not 102 MPs. Ross Vasta is on personal leave.

Mike Bowers, meanwhile, has gone to church. That’s what happens at the opening of parliament. MPs gather and pray. Bowers is probably too busy filing to pray.

Queensland MP Andrew Laming has been boundary riding for several days on the spill.

Fellow Queenslander Wyatt Roy confirmed a similar intention when he arrived at Canberra airport last night.

Camp Abbott is throwing around “ambush” this morning – this is an ambush against the prime minister that has been building since last December. Ambush is in the eye of the beholder of course, but it is certainly true that dissident backbenchers have been active since just before Christmas. The discontent was detectable in the last sitting weeks of last year. But these bursts of unhappiness can prove transient things. Not in this case.

However this ends this morning, the government is in a divided head about how to proceed – and those divisions will not fade away quietly.

Heeere’s Malcolm.

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For those of us inclined to catastrophising, Dennis Shanahan in the Australian this morning reasons that prime ministers aren’t meant to be loved.

It looks bad. A prime minister in deep political trouble, beset by woeful polling, budget problems and internal dissent. Yet as Tony Abbott faces a crucial test of his leadership this morning, he should take heart; other prime ministers have been in similar — or even worse — positions, held on to the leadership and won subsequent elections. It remains a long way back for the prime minister but historical parallels suggest he can still survive and prosper.

Ouch, for different reasons. Damn those news archives. Peak BullTurn.

Ouch is the technical term.

The man who is not yet officially a challenger, Malcolm Turnbull, has just arrived at parliament house.

This nuts and bolts piece from my colleagues Daniel Hurst and Lenore Taylor is very helpful as we hurtle towards 9am. Here are some excerpts from that, including the essential fact: the magic number for the spill motion to succeed is 52 votes. Camp Abbott is professing confidence about the numbers, although the prime minister acknowledged on the ABC news last night that he might not prevail. We wait, we see.

The process this morning:

• A roll call is likely to be taken and the motion will be proposed and seconded. The chief government whip, Philip Ruddock, says he views it as a procedural matter so there will not be formal speeches or debate. He reasons that MPs and senators have been talking to each other over the past few days anyway – “a very informed audience”. The idea is to proceed straight to a vote.

• The lack of written rules means the spill motion can be decided either by secret ballot or a show of hands, and it is up to the discretion of the leader. Abbott has agreed that a secret ballot is the appropriate course of action. When Malcolm Turnbull faced his showdown as opposition leader in 2009, he asked the former prime minister John Howard how it would be best to proceed. Howard said it was up to Turnbull and Turnbull opted for a secret ballot.

• Ballot papers will be distributed to the MPs and senators, who will write “yes” or “no” to the spill. The party whips will count the votes and advise the leader of the result.

• For the spill motion to succeed, it must win support from at least 52 of the 102 available votes in the Liberal party room. (National party MPs and senators will not attend the meeting and do not vote on the Liberal leadership; it is possible that one of the 102 Liberal members may miss the vote for personal reasons.)

Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of yet another extraordinary day in Australian politics. Tony Abbott will face a party room debate on a motion to spill the leadership of the Liberal party at 9am this morning.

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As is our habit, Mike Bowers has pictured the scene going on downstairs. In our brick parliament, here is the prime minister’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, giving final instructions to the candidate. “Be gracious. Be humble. Be the winner.”

The spill motion will be voted on without delay. We don’t anticipate speeches. The vote will be a secret ballot, which will enable frontbenchers to exercise a conscience vote even though there has been an enormous effort to bind them behind the current leadership team. How long the process goes from there depends whether or not the spill is a success.

Government MPs go into this morning’s spill vote consuming an absolute shocker of a Newspoll. As the Australian’s Phillip Hudson reports, the two-party preferred figure is Coalition 43% and Labor 57% – the worst result since 2009.

Abbott’s satisfaction figures are solidly in the avert-eyes territory. The poll indicates voters would prefer Malcolm Turnbull or Julie Bishop as prime minister. (As is often the case in polls, Turnbull is less popular with folks who identify as Coalition voters.) That noted, Turnbull leads as preferred leader over Abbott 64% to 25%. Bishop’s lead was 59% to 27%.

That might focus the odd mind. But this is politics. Evidence doesn’t always come into the equation. Speaking of evidence, I will try very hard to follow my usual form on this blog: I’ll try and avoid speculation and report what I know when I know it. I’ll respect you enough to think you can wait a few minutes rather than me being first to get it wrong.

The Politics Live comment thread is wide open for your business. Bowers and I can also be reached on the Twits @murpharoo @mpbowers