If federal prosecutors back up their claim, and show that Gov. Christie has been flat-out lying about Bridgegate from the start, could he be impeached and removed from office?
The legal answer is easy: Yes.
The Constitution puts no restraints on the legislators. They could impeach and convict a governor for eating a ham sandwich -- and no court has the authority to overturn them.
"It's a political question," says Professor Robert Williams of Rutgers Law in Camden, and an authority of the state Constitution. "It's intentionally left up to both houses to define that."
The Constitution says only that "misdemeanors" can justify it. And that's not referring to bar fights and other minor crimes. This is the generic use of the word, what Merriam-Webster calls a "misdeed." So the legal door is wide open.
But what about the politics?
Christie's incredibly shrinking poll numbers show that only 1 in 4 approve of him, with five more weeks of Bridgegate trial in front of him. So taking a head shot at Christie is not going to spark a revolt.
In fact, the approval polls don't really capture the venom most people feel for Christie these days. My favorite poll remains the one in May showing that half of the people in the state "dislike everything about him."
Now, that's harsh. To find something more harsh, you'd have to bounce around divorce court for a few days.
And we are not talking about eating a ham sandwich here. This was a felony conspiracy that put the public at risk, and the governor could have stopped with a snap of his fingers, if you believe federal prosecutors. That strikes me as ample justification for impeachment and conviction.
But my guess is that it won't happen. For one, we're running out of time. The trial could drag to Thanksgiving; the Assembly could take months to impeach, and the Senate months more to try him.
He leaves in 16 months. So legislators may decide it's not worth the effort to clip off a few months of his lame duck time.
"I do believe it would be an impeachable offense, absolutely," says Sen. Loretta Weinberg, co-chair of the investigative committee. "But is it worth doing it for a guy who would be leaving in six months anyway?"
Another reason: The Senate would need a two-thirds vote to convict Christie and remove him from office.
"It would be difficult," says Sen. Kip Bateman (R-Somerset), who has feuded with the governor on occasion. "But he doesn't have the control and power over the Senate that he used to have. It's a new game, and we'll see what happens."
"I certainly think it's possible," another Republican senator said.
This one didn't want his name revealed, perhaps out of fear that a bridge in his district might be shut down, or that someone on Christie's team might hit him over the head with a lead pipe. They do talk like that.
I'm skeptical about a mutiny among Senate Republicans, though, and so are most legislators I talked to. The Senate has found the needed two-thirds to override a Christie veto only once, on gun control. Removing him from office would be a much bigger deal.
Another consideration, this one from Niccolo Machiavelli, the world's first political scientist: If Democrats throw out Christie, the governorship would go to Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno until the next election.
She wants to run for governor. Why would Democrats want to give her a running start?
Put all this into the mix, and my guess is that it won't happen. Rather than kill Christie outright, Democrats will restart their investigation into Christie's role, this time with a truckload of new leads.
They won't chop off his head with an impeachment; they'll make him bleed, slowly, until he slinks away in 16 months.
I know: It's possible he'll leave sooner if Donald Trump wins. I'm just not emotionally prepared yet to accept that possibility. My faith in America is shaken, but not yet lost.
Much will hinge on the trial itself, how repugnant Christie's behavior appears, and how solid the proof looks. That's a wild card. And don't forget about the misuse of the governor's office as a campaign tool, and the $10 million of our money that he spent on his shamelessly bias internal investigation.
If prosecutors deliver on their claim, my own feeling is that the Legislature should impeach and convict.
One of several impeachment petitions circulating online is from the New Jersey Working Families Alliance, a liberal group that has battled the governor.
"I don't care if there are only two months to go, or two days," said Analilia Mejia, its executive director. "We should hold our elected officials accountable for their misdeeds.
"I'm frustrated. Because I don't think it's going to happen."
Neither do I. But let's see what prosecutors come up with. Keep hope alive.
More: Tom Moran columns
Tom Moran may be reached at tmoran@starledger.com or call (973) 836-4909. Follow him on Twitter @tomamoran. Find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook.